Tuesday, 25 June 2013

Can we predict the next financial crisis?

Here's a recent TED talk from risk economist, Didier Sornette. Didier runs the Financial Crisis Observatory which has plotted a set of early warning signs for unstable, growing systems, tracking the moment when any bubble is about to pop. Not just bubbles in finance but all over the place throughout different systems in the world.

It's worth a watch if only so you can either:
a) marvel in amazement at his predictions,
b) shout bullshit at the screen, or
c) be astonished that there doesn't seem to be any actual science or presentation of what, how or why he declares anything a bubble and the mathematical point at which it will break.

The comments on the video are excellent and you should jump in and join the discussion there. Most interestingly, he puts up a slide on the bubble of human population and then doesn't actually talk about it. Clearly this is the biggest and most damaging bubble that mankind faces and it would be interesting to find out more at what point the human exponential population explosion bubble is going to pop...